Regional Market Commentary - Winter 2026
Regional Market Commentary - Winter 2026
We collate property market data from a range of trusted sources and provide seasonal updates for general information purposes only. While we endeavour to provide accurate insights, we do not warrant the accuracy of the data relied upon. Sources include: Quotable Value (QV), Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Stats NZ, and Cotality.
National Overview
The national market has become increasingly divided through the first half of 2026. QV's June 2026 House Price Index recorded a 0.4% reduction in average residential property values nationally over the quarter, reversing the modest gains of the previous two indices. The national average home value now sits at $906,443, virtually unchanged from the start of the calendar year.
REINZ data for June recorded a national median sale price of $770,000, up 0.7% annually, with 5,996 sales and a median 48 days to sell. The national House Price Index remained slightly negative at -0.8% annually. National inventory rose 7.3% to 34,761 while new listings increased 4.3%.
The defining feature of the quarter was geographic. As QV's Simon Petersen put it, average home values increased almost everywhere south of Greymouth, with Dunedin the sole exception, while Tauranga was the North Island's only main centre to record growth. Southland, Otago and Canterbury held the top three positions for annual House Price Index growth.
The wider economic backdrop tightened over the period. The Reserve Bank increased the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% on 8 July, the first increase since May 2023, and annual inflation for the June 2026 year was subsequently confirmed at 4.1%, above the 1–3% target band. Fuel prices eased from their April peaks during the quarter but remained above pre-conflict levels, and the approaching general election added a further note of caution to buyer sentiment.
Christchurch City
Christchurch has continued to quietly outperform the national market. QV's June 2026 House Price Index recorded a 0.9% quarterly increase in the city's average home value to $805,736 — 3.9% higher than the same time last year and 1.8% above where it started the calendar year. Canterbury was the country's second strongest region for the quarter behind Southland, and notably every district across the region recorded average value growth.
REINZ data supports the picture. Canterbury's median sale price of $710,000 in June was up 5.2% annually, making it one of only six regions nationally to record a year-on-year median increase, and the region posted one of its strongest June sales results on record. The Canterbury House Price Index was up 4.1% annually, third nationally.
QV South Island noted that internal migration into the region remains strong, with large family homes sought after and premium prices being paid in established suburbs including Merivale, St Albans and Papanui. The townhouse sector has seen the price correction anticipated at the start of the year, with oversupply and active developer marketing drawing first-home buyers and investors. Rentals were up 1% annually, with additional pressure in the student market as more students opt for Canterbury.
Selwyn District
Selwyn participated in the region-wide growth recorded by QV this quarter, with every Canterbury district posting an average value increase in the three months to June 2026 — a reversal of the modest quarterly decline recorded in the March index.
Rolleston, West Melton and Lincoln continue to anchor activity. QV characterises Selwyn, alongside Waimakariri, as an affordable location with lifestyle appeal, and that combination continues to draw families and remote workers from Christchurch and further afield. New subdivision supply continues to come through without materially undermining demand, although the breadth of price points now transacting can pull district medians around from month to month. District-level median data for June was not published in the summary release; the regional indicators remain the more reliable guide.
Waimakariri District
Waimakariri has maintained its steady performance, sharing in the growth recorded across every Canterbury district in the June quarter. Rangiora and Kaiapoi continue to attract buyers seeking more affordable alternatives to central Christchurch, with commuter connectivity, schooling and newer housing stock underpinning demand.
Marketing periods across the district have remained competitive relative to regional norms, and well-priced stock in established streets continues to attract prompt interest. First-home buyers and families remain the primary cohort.
West Coast Region
The West Coast again produced mixed signals. QV's June 2026 House Price Index recorded a marginal 0.1% quarterly decline across the wider region, following a 4.4% increase in the previous index. The average home value is $451,775, up 2.8% annually and 1.2% higher than at the start of 2026.
Within the region, Grey District recorded a 2.2% quarterly increase to an average $472,424, up 4.1% annually, while Buller fell 2.7% to $375,880 and Westland fell 1.1% to $515,429. Westland remains 7.4% higher than twelve months ago despite the quarterly decline.
REINZ data recorded the West Coast as the country's strongest region for annual median price growth in June, with a median of $474,350, up 12.9%. Grey District set a new all-time territorial authority median price record of $595,000, surpassing its previous high of $520,000 set in December 2025.
These figures require careful reading. The same month produced the region's lowest June sales count since 2015 and its highest median days to sell since June 2020. Strong median growth on very thin volumes reflects the mix of what transacted rather than broad-based value appreciation. Local QV registered valuer Rod Thornton characterised the market as steady overall, noting that low sales volumes can unduly influence the index in a region with such a wide spread of housing types, locations and value drivers. Extended marketing periods remain typical, particularly for lifestyle and rural-adjacent property.
Dunedin
After a strong start to the calendar year, Dunedin paused over the winter quarter. QV's June 2026 House Price Index recorded a 0.3% decline in average home values over the three months to June — the only centre south of Greymouth not to record growth.
That result should be read against the city's wider trajectory. Dunedin remains 3.4% above where it started the calendar year, the second strongest year-to-date performance in Otago behind Central Otago, following the 3.7% quarterly gain recorded in the March index. The Otago region as a whole recorded a 4.3% annual House Price Index increase in REINZ's June data, second only to Southland nationally.
The entry-level and mid-market segments remain the most active. The structural case for the city — relative affordability, university-driven rental demand and lifestyle appeal — is unchanged, though higher borrowing costs, cost-of-living pressures and pre-election caution have tempered the momentum evident earlier in the year.
Clutha District
Clutha remains the quietest market in Otago. QV recorded a 0.7% average decline over the June quarter, and at the halfway point of 2026 Clutha is the only Otago district sitting below where it began the calendar year, at -0.4%.
Balclutha and Milton continue to account for most activity. Affordability remains the primary driver and vendor flexibility is often required to secure timely sales. Marketing periods remain extended relative to regional norms, and the district continues to be sensitive to agricultural confidence and rural employment conditions. As with all low-volume markets, month-to-month movement should be interpreted with caution.
Queenstown Lakes District
Growth has slowed materially in Queenstown. QV's June 2026 House Price Index recorded a 0.1% quarterly increase in average home values, down from 1.0% in the March quarter and 1.2% in the May index.
The district retains its position as the country's highest-value residential market, and returning international migration, domestic lifestyle demand and interest in properties holding Visitor Accommodation consent continue to underpin values. However, the pace of growth has clearly moderated in the face of higher interest rates, global uncertainty and reduced buyer urgency. Pricing accuracy has become more important, particularly in the upper price brackets where activity has thinned.
Central Otago District
Central Otago was Otago's standout performer again this quarter. QV recorded a 0.5% quarterly increase, one of only two Otago districts to record growth, and the district is 4.4% ahead of where it began the calendar year — the strongest year-to-date result in the region.
REINZ data confirmed a new all-time territorial authority median price record for Central Otago in June at $1,000,000, surpassing the previous high of $885,000 set in April 2026. Cromwell, Clyde and Alexandra continue to drive activity, with lifestyle appeal, proximity to Queenstown at more accessible price points, and internal migration supporting demand. Stock remains constrained in the mid-to-upper brackets where second-home purchasers, retirees and professionals are competing for a limited pool of quality property.
Southland Region (incl. Invercargill)
Southland was New Zealand's strongest-performing region over the June quarter. QV recorded a 1.0% average increase in home values across the region, and REINZ confirmed Southland as the national leader for annual House Price Index growth at 8.6%, ahead of Otago at 4.3% and Canterbury at 4.1%.
Within the region the results varied. Gore was the clear standout with a 5.4% quarterly increase in average home values, while Invercargill added 1.5% and Southland District recorded a 2.1% reduction.
Supply dynamics are worth noting. Southland recorded the strongest annual growth in new listings of any region, up 24.7%, yet REINZ reports that Southland and Canterbury continued to absorb new stock quickly. That combination — rising listings met by comparable demand — is the clearest available indicator of genuine market depth rather than scarcity-driven pricing. Affordability, yield potential and a strong local economy continue to attract both owner-occupiers and investors to the region.
This commentary is prepared by Valuation Partners Limited for general information purposes only. It does not constitute valuation advice. Readers should seek professional advice specific to their property or investment circumstances.
Sources: QV House Price Index (June 2026), REINZ New Zealand Property Report (June 2026), Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Stats NZ.