Regional Market Commentary - Autumn 2026
Regional Market Commentary - Autumn 2026
We collate property market data from a range of trusted sources and provide seasonal updates for general information purposes only. While we endeavour to provide accurate insights, we do not warrant the accuracy of the data relied upon. Sources include: Quotable Value (QV), Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Stats NZ, and Cotality.
Christchurch City
Christchurch continues to stand out as one of New Zealand’s best-performing residential markets. According to QV’s March 2026 House Price Index, the average home value in Christchurch has grown 3.1% over the past 12 months to $798,518 — a 0.9% quarterly increase and a performance that places Canterbury among the country’s top three regions nationally. The city’s average value is now 55% above its March 2020 level, the strongest long-run gain of any major centre.
REINZ data for February 2026 recorded a median sale price of $735,000 for Christchurch City — a new record for the city. Demand continues to be supported by affordability relative to Auckland and Wellington, ongoing urban development, and a strong employment base. The opening of One New Zealand Stadium at Te Kaha in late March 2026 adds another layer of long-term infrastructure confidence to the inner city. Well-presented properties in established suburbs continue to attract competition, particularly among first-home buyers and upgraders. The broader Canterbury region’s HPI was up 2.8% annually, with the region recording some of its strongest February sales volumes since 2021.
Selwyn District
Selwyn remains one of Canterbury’s most active sub-markets, underpinned by sustained population growth and continued subdivision activity. Popular growth corridors in Rolleston, West Melton, and Lincoln continue to attract strong buyer demand, with newer housing stock and relative affordability driving turnover. February 2026 data indicated Selwyn’s median sale price at approximately $783,000 — the highest of any Canterbury sub-region — with days on market among the shortest in the region at around 42 days.
QV’s March index recorded a modest average quarterly decline of 0.5% in Selwyn to $853,294, reflecting some cooling at the top of the price range, though the district’s proximity to Christchurch and lifestyle appeal continue to support long-term value resilience. Families and remote workers remain the primary buyer cohort, and new subdivisions continue to provide additional supply without materially softening demand.
Waimakariri District
Waimakariri continues to perform solidly, with Rangiora and Kaiapoi attracting consistent buyer activity from purchasers seeking more affordable alternatives to central Christchurch. According to QV, the average home value in Waimakariri increased 0.6% over the March 2026 quarter to $742,651, reflecting steady if modest growth. The district achieved a new median price record in January 2026, further evidence of sustained buyer confidence.
Days to sell remain competitive across the district, and well-priced properties in established streets continue to attract prompt buyer interest. The Waimakariri district’s infrastructure, schooling options, and commuter connectivity to Christchurch continue to underpin demand, particularly among families and first-home buyers seeking new or near-new housing at accessible price points.
West Coast Region
The West Coast has delivered some of the more surprising data of the autumn period. QV’s March 2026 House Price Index recorded an overall quarterly increase of 1.3% across the wider region, with the average home value reaching $452,285 — up 4.6% year-on-year. Within the region, Westland District saw a strong quarterly lift of 5.3% to an average of $520,935, and Buller District rose 5.6% to $386,391. Grey District recorded a quarterly decline of 3.4%.
As QV’s local commentator noted, West Coast statistics should be interpreted with care given lower volumes and the wide mix of property types, locations, and price points that can cause month-to-month fluctuation. Nonetheless, the market is characterised as steady and active. Affordability remains the region’s primary drawcard, with buyer interest driven by local employment, coastal lifestyle, and investors attracted to comparatively strong rental yields. Longer marketing periods remain typical for lifestyle and rural-adjacent properties.
Dunedin
Dunedin has produced one of the standout results in the QV March 2026 House Price Index, with average home values rising 3.7% over the quarter to $659,571 — a 2.2% annual increase, and 19% above the city’s March 2020 level. This placed Dunedin among the top-performing main centres nationally for the quarter, consistent with the broader Otago region’s outperformance of national trends.
REINZ data supports this momentum: Dunedin’s HPI was up 1.1% in March 2026 alone, with the city continuing to attract buyer competition for well-presented properties in central and family-friendly suburbs. Opes Partners data indicates Dunedin house prices have risen approximately 1.11% over the most recent three months, with properties now sitting around 5.7% above long-run valuation norms. The entry-level and mid-market segments remain most active. Rising fuel costs and broader economic uncertainty may temper momentum into winter, but the structural case for Dunedin — affordability, university-driven rental demand, and lifestyle appeal — remains intact.
Clutha District
Clutha continues to operate as a quiet, price-sensitive market. While precise March 2026 district-level median data is not yet published, broader Otago HPI data shows Clutha recorded just 0.2% average quarterly growth — the smallest gain within the region, though still above the national average of -0.1%. This represents a stabilisation from the sharper declines reported through mid-2025, when REINZ data showed annual median price falls in excess of 11%.
The rural and service-town character of the district continues to define buyer behaviour. Balclutha and Milton remain the most active sub-markets, with affordability the primary driver and vendor flexibility often required to secure timely sales. Marketing periods remain extended relative to regional norms, and the district remains sensitive to broader rural economic conditions including agricultural confidence and employment.
Queenstown Lakes District
Queenstown Lakes continues to lead the national market in value growth. According to QV’s March 2026 data, average home values rose 1.0% over the quarter to a new average of $1,931,981 — up 6.2% year-on-year and 54.7% above March 2020 levels. The REINZ House Price Index for the Queenstown Lakes District was up 3.3% in March alone, reinforcing the district’s position as one of the country’s most resilient high-value markets.
Multiple-offer scenarios remain present for well-located property, and open home attendance has stayed elevated. Demand is being supported by returning international migration, domestic lifestyle buyers, and investor interest in properties with Visitor Accommodation consent. The continued easing of overseas buyer policy settings has further supported enquiry from international purchasers. As with the national market, rising fuel costs and global uncertainty introduced some caution toward the end of March, but Queenstown’s fundamental appeal and constrained supply continue to underpin values at elevated levels.
Central Otago District
Central Otago is one of the region’s strongest performers this autumn. QV’s March 2026 data recorded a 4.0% quarterly increase in average home values across Central Otago — the second-highest gain in the Otago region behind Waitaki (4.4%). This places Central Otago well above the national quarterly average of -0.1%, reflecting robust localised demand in Cromwell, Clyde, and Alexandra.
Buyer activity is driven by lifestyle appeal, relative proximity to Queenstown, and internal migration from other parts of New Zealand. Stock remains constrained, particularly in the $800,000 to $1.5 million range, where second-home purchasers, retirees, and professionals are competing for a limited pool of quality property. REINZ data has confirmed new territorial authority price records for Central Otago in recent months. The market remains active and competitive, though vendors are advised that pricing accuracy remains critical as buyer caution has lifted slightly in the context of broader economic uncertainty.
Southland Region (incl. Invercargill)
Southland has retained its position as the country’s top-performing region on an annual HPI basis. According to QV’s March 2026 data, the average home value in Invercargill increased 1.5% over the quarter to $539,126 — up 8.1% year-on-year and 42.9% above March 2020 levels. Wider Southland and Gore districts also posted strong annual gains of 8.2% and 10.1% respectively.
REINZ data confirms Southland held the top spot for HPI annual growth nationally through the 12 months to March 2026, a position it has held for 19 of the past 22 months. Invercargill in particular is seeing solid enquiry levels, with tidy, well-priced homes attracting prompt buyer attention and in some cases pre-auction offers. Affordability and yield potential continue to attract both owner-occupiers and investors to the region. Buyer confidence remains broadly positive, though rising mortgage rates — with major banks lifting fixed rates in late March — will be a factor to watch heading into the cooler months.
This commentary is prepared by Valuation Partners Limited for general information purposes only. It does not constitute valuation advice Readers should seek professional advice specific to their property or investment circumstances. Sources: QV House Price Index (March 2026), REINZ (March 2026 via interest.co.nz), Cotality/CoreLogic, Opes Partners.