Regional Market Commentary - Summer 2025/26
Regional Market Commentary
We collate property market data from a range of trusted sources and provide seasonal updates for general information purposes only. While we endeavour to provide accurate insights, we do not warrant the accuracy of the data relied upon. Sources include: Quotable Value (QV), Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Stats NZ, and Cotality.
National Overview
The market closed 2025 on a firmer footing. QV's December 2025 House Price Index recorded a 1.1% increase in average residential property values nationally over the three months to December, with the national average home value at $910,118 — 0.9% higher than a year earlier and 13.1% below the January 2022 peak. A clear majority of the areas QV measures recorded quarterly growth, indicating that value movements had become more broadly based than at any point during 2025.
REINZ data for December recorded a national median sale price of $786,977, up 1.4% annually, with twelve of the sixteen regions posting a year-on-year median increase. National sales were up 8.1% annually to 6,644, and excluding Auckland up 10.6% to 4,758. The national median days to sell shortened by two days to 39. The national House Price Index remained marginally negative at -0.4% annually and 15.7% below its peak.
Supply remains the moderating influence. QV national spokesperson Andrea Rush noted that the number of homes for sale nationwide was at its highest level in a decade, leaving buyers with choice and negotiating room, which is keeping value movements in check even where activity has improved. REINZ chief executive Lizzy Ryley reported that first-home buyers and owner-occupiers continued to dominate, supported by lower interest rates and relative affordability against previous peaks.
The wider backdrop was supportive but cautious. The Official Cash Rate sits at 2.25% following the Reserve Bank's November 2025 reduction, its lowest level since June 2022, with guidance pointing to the end of the easing cycle rather than further cuts. Rush observed that the coming election year may introduce a degree of caution, with any change in values likely to be gradual rather than rapid.
Christchurch City
Christchurch closed the year as the country's strongest-performing main centre. QV's December 2025 House Price Index recorded a 2.5% increase in the city's average home value over the quarter to $791,541, which is 3.3% higher than the same time a year earlier.
Growth was broad-based across the city, and extended to Selwyn and Waimakariri. Christchurch City – West recorded the strongest quarterly increase at 5.2%, while Christchurch City – Peninsula was the only part of the city to record a decline.
REINZ data reinforced the picture. Canterbury's December median sale price of $725,000 matched the outright regional record set in November 2025, and the region recorded its highest December sales count since 2020. Canterbury's House Price Index was up 2.6% annually, second nationally behind Southland.
QV Christchurch registered valuer Michael Tohill described a market functioning well, with listing numbers remaining elevated while selling times continued to shorten. Demand was particularly strong in the $1 million to $2 million bracket, where competitive bidding and solid sale prices were being achieved. He noted that pressure persists in the townhouse sector, where ample supply and a continuing development pipeline are weighing on pricing — a dynamic QV identified in both Auckland and Christchurch over the quarter.
Selwyn District
Selwyn shared in the broad-based growth recorded across the Christchurch metropolitan area in the December quarter, with QV confirming that value increases extended into both Selwyn and Waimakariri.
Rolleston, West Melton and Lincoln continue to anchor activity, with relative affordability and lifestyle appeal drawing families and remote workers from Christchurch. Building activity across the district remained steady, with Tohill reporting that builders held healthy forward work programmes extending well into 2026 — a useful forward indicator of sustained demand for new housing stock in the growth corridors.
District-level average values and medians for the December quarter were not published in the summary releases; the Christchurch metropolitan and Canterbury regional indicators remain the more reliable guide for the period.
Waimakariri District
Waimakariri likewise participated in the quarter's growth, with QV noting value increases across the district alongside Selwyn and the wider Christchurch metropolitan area.
Rangiora and Kaiapoi continue to draw buyers seeking more affordable alternatives to central Christchurch, supported by commuter connectivity, schooling and a steady supply of new and near-new housing. Forward building work programmes across the district remained healthy into 2026. As with Selwyn, district-level figures were not published in the December summary releases.
West Coast Region
The West Coast presented the clearest divergence between value movement and market liquidity of any region this quarter.
QV recorded Buller as the only South Island area to fall by more than 2.0% over the December quarter, down 4.1%. QV noted that this result came from a very small number of sales, and that percentage movements can appear larger in one of the country's most affordable districts because of the lower value base.
REINZ data pointed to a market that slowed markedly. The West Coast recorded the greatest year-on-year increase in median days to sell of any region, rising 35 days from 49 to 84 — its highest reading since June 2020 and its highest December figure since 2017. Sales volumes fell to their lowest level since April 2025, and the region recorded its nineteenth consecutive month of year-on-year inventory growth.
These indicators should be read together rather than in isolation. Thin volumes make value indices unreliable on a month-to-month basis in this region, while the days-to-sell and inventory figures are the more dependable read on conditions. Extended marketing periods should be assumed, particularly for lifestyle and rural-adjacent property.
Dunedin
Dunedin recorded modest growth over the summer quarter. QV's December 2025 House Price Index shows the city's average home value increased 0.4% over the three months to December, a smaller gain than Christchurch and Hamilton but consistent with the steadier pattern the city maintained through much of 2025.
The wider regional picture was stronger. REINZ recorded a record-high Otago House Price Index of 4,274 in December, 1.2% above the previous peak of 4,224 set the month prior, and Otago posted the second-highest House Price Index growth nationwide over the three months to December, behind only Southland.
Entry-level and mid-market stock continued to carry activity. Relative affordability, university-driven rental demand and lifestyle appeal remain the structural supports for the city, with elevated listing levels giving buyers scope to take their time.
Clutha District
Clutha remains a small, price-sensitive market where published district-level data for the December quarter was not available in the summary releases.
Regionally, the position was constructive, with Otago recording a record House Price Index level and the second-strongest three-month index growth in the country. Balclutha and Milton continue to account for most activity, with affordability the primary driver. Marketing periods remain extended relative to regional norms, and the district continues to be sensitive to agricultural confidence and rural employment conditions. As with all low-volume markets, individual quarterly movements should be treated with caution.
Queenstown Lakes District
Queenstown recorded a 1.4% quarterly increase in average home values in QV's December 2025 House Price Index, placing it among the stronger regional centres nationally but representing a slowdown from the pace recorded in the previous quarter.
The district retains its position as the country's highest-value residential market. Returning international migration, domestic lifestyle demand and interest in properties with Visitor Accommodation consent continue to underpin values, though the moderation in quarterly growth suggests buyers had become more measured heading into 2026. Pricing accuracy remains important, particularly in the upper brackets where activity is thinner and more sensitive to sentiment.
Central Otago District
District-level data for Central Otago was not published in the December quarter summary releases.
The regional context was favourable, with Otago setting a record House Price Index level in December and recording the second-strongest three-month index growth nationally. Cromwell, Clyde and Alexandra continue to drive activity in the district, supported by lifestyle appeal, proximity to Queenstown at more accessible price points, and internal migration. Stock in the mid-to-upper brackets has remained constrained, with second-home purchasers, retirees and professionals competing for a limited pool of quality property.
Southland Region (incl. Invercargill)
Southland finished 2025 as the country's standout region on almost every measure.
QV recorded Invercargill as the strongest-performing regional centre in the country over the December quarter, with average home values up 3.3% — ahead of Rotorua at 2.6%, Whangārei at 2.5% and Nelson at 2.3%.
REINZ data confirmed Southland as the national leader for annual House Price Index growth at 6.6%, ahead of Canterbury at 2.6% and Gisborne/Hawke's Bay at 2.5%. Southland had held the top annual ranking for five consecutive months and in eighteen of the preceding twenty-one months. The region also posted the highest House Price Index growth nationwide over the three months to December.
The speed of the market was equally notable. Southland recorded the largest annual reduction in median days to sell of any region, down 19 days from 40 to 21 — its fastest reading since March 2021 and its fastest December since 2019. Affordability, yield potential and a strong primary sector continue to attract both owner-occupiers and investors to the region.
This commentary is prepared by Valuation Partners Limited for general information purposes only. It does not constitute valuation advice Readers should seek professional advice specific to their property or investment circumstances. Sources: QV House Price Index (March 2026), REINZ (March 2026 via interest.co.nz), Cotality/CoreLogic, Opes Partners.